Work Package 4 – Quantification of Antarctic Ice Sheet ‘deep uncertainty’ and freshwater fluxes under climate forcing (Objective 4) utilises improved initialisation states from WP3 to project the freshwater fluxes of the AIS in ice sheet and coupled ice sheet-ocean models from 2020-2300 and its contribution to SLR.

We will provide first-of-their-kind spatiotemporal trends in calving rates, ice shelf basal melt and surface mass balance for all Antarctic basins. We will apply surrogate modelling techniques in combination with high resolution models to robustly quantify modelled freshwater flux uncertainties and sensitivities to a range of climate forcing scenarios and identify tipping points.