Climate models often poorly represent ice-sheet mass loss, leading to uncertainty in climate predictions. Our new paper aims to be a step towards bridging this gap by providing the first historically calibrated projections of Antarctic freshwater fluxes by 2300. These projections, including contributions from melting at the base of the floating ice shelves, iceberg calving and surface meltwater runoff, can be integrated into climate models that lack interactive ice sheets.
Our results show that freshwater release from the Antarctic ice sheet into the Southern Ocean is projected to increase in the coming decades and centuries. Under an extreme warming scenario, this increase could reach up to four times current levels by 2300. We also project a shift in the form and depth of freshwater discharge, as the dominant source is expected to transition from calving to sub‐shelf melt, and potentially to surface meltwater runoff, which may become a dominant contributor under a very‐high emission scenario. While almost all Antarctic regions are likely to experience increased freshwater discharge, most of this discharge is projected to occur in the Amundsen and Weddell Seas.
Incorporating these substantial changes in the amount, spatial distribution, and nature of freshwater discharge from Antarctica into climate projections will improve our ability to assess its impact on future regional and global ocean and atmosphere dynamics.
This paper is linked to deliverables D4.1 (submitted in May 2024) and D4.2 (due October 2025).
Read the paper here: https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2024esoar.19524512C/doi:10.22541/essoar.172135861.19524512/v1
The author of the article - Violaine Coulon (Universite Libre De Bruxelles)